Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 4.657446 5.569600 6.584282 7.792550 9.187753 10.743713 12.605581
2025-02-23 3.175531 4.292976 5.667064 7.464185 9.733762 12.484464 16.047757
2025-03-02 2.260458 3.404197 4.937990 7.108753 10.058972 13.880534 19.147868
2025-03-09 1.762443 2.916193 4.583009 7.103592 10.741925 15.713874 22.911200
2025-03-16 1.417592 2.555638 4.313501 7.131427 11.416294 17.544169 26.786769
2025-03-23 1.151863 2.251264 4.058357 7.113612 11.981599 19.229200 30.560231
2025-03-30 0.898211 1.905709 3.668311 6.808970 12.045266 20.147500 33.252797
2025-04-06 0.747495 1.708337 3.485715 6.802417 12.554101 21.752504 37.066101
2025-04-13 0.620811 1.526700 3.295943 6.747076 12.959056 23.205569 40.726831
2025-04-20 0.565843 1.479203 3.344722 7.117263 14.114326 25.943631 46.603961
2025-04-27 0.504302 1.403001 3.323338 7.348786 15.038832 28.356652 52.099669
2025-05-04 0.461526 1.360004 3.360788 7.693353 16.192037 31.228656 58.526764
2025-05-11 0.392208 1.238682 3.218748 7.673733 16.686499 33.032505 63.333323
2025-05-18 0.317144 1.082293 2.972036 7.404782 16.675713 33.940380 66.659787
2025-05-25 0.252140 0.933371 2.713202 7.069656 16.491922 34.508442 69.410669
2025-06-01 0.215890 0.857050 2.614029 7.070534 16.980784 36.346273 74.539834
2025-06-08 0.186471 0.792819 2.533035 7.100290 17.528216 38.326311 80.039370
2025-06-15 0.159610 0.728178 2.438370 7.083226 17.970041 40.126174 85.300978
2025-06-22 0.127433 0.632654 2.239019 6.779933 17.750711 40.600982 88.074918
2025-06-29 0.109454 0.583541 2.162101 6.773478 18.192670 42.426052 93.539149
2025-07-06 0.092890 0.533456 2.071756 6.718366 18.514730 44.022414 98.639249
2025-07-13 0.088226 0.532920 2.135979 7.087206 19.865277 47.838321 108.326894
2025-07-20 0.080868 0.517533 2.149558 7.317889 20.903367 51.054021 116.966622